Abstract
INTRODUCTION: We evaluated impaired odor identification and global cognition as simple, cost-effective alternatives to neuroimaging biomarkers to predict cognitive decline and dementia in the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging. METHODS: Six hundred forty-seven participants (mean 8.1, standard deviation 3.4 years' follow-up) had the following baseline procedures: modified Blessed Information Memory Concentration Test (BIMCT), 12-item Brief Smell Identification Test (BSIT), structural brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and positron emission tomography (PET) imaging with 11C-Pittsburgh compound B (11C-PiB) and fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG; subset). RESULTS: Cognitive decline developed in 102 participants and dementia in 34 participants. In survival analyses, PiB PET showed robust prediction for cognitive decline. Impaired BSIT, impaired BIMCT, MRI, and FDG measures were also significant predictors. The combination of demographics + BSIT + BIMCT showed strong predictive utility (C-index 0.81), similar to demographics + PiB PET (C-index 0.80). Similar but stronger results were obtained for prediction of dementia. DISCUSSION: Impairment in both odor identification test and global cognition was comparable to PiB PET for predicting cognitive decline and dementia. HIGHLIGHTS: In 647 participants in the population-based Mayo Clinic Study of Aging, several clinical markers and biomarkers each predicted cognitive decline or dementia during an average 8 years of follow-up. The combination of the demographic variables of age, sex, and education with a brief odor identification test (BSIT) and a global cognitive test (Blessed Information Memory Concentration Test) showed strong predictive utility (C-index 0.81) for cognitive decline that was similar to the demographic variables combined with Pittsburgh Compound B amyloid imaging (C-index 0.80). Combining a brief odor identification test with a brief cognitive test needs consideration as a simple, cost-effective option in the clinical assessment of individuals at risk of cognitive decline and dementia, as well as a potential tool to identify individuals who may benefit from disease-modifying treatments and to screen participants for prevention trials.