Abstract
The "Bosque de Agua", to the west and south of Mexico City, which is the fifth largest city in the world, has historically suffered disturbances in forest cover, with a consequent reduction in the environmental services provided. Changes in the state of the forests between 1994 and 2017 are here analyzed in terms of the annual net change in area of the different cover densities and the different change processes. In general, the net change was favorable in all cases: forest improvement vs. forest degradation, reforestation vs. deforestation, and afforestation vs. land use change. There were changes in 16.03% of the Bosque de Agua: recovery in 11.09% and disturbance in 4.94%. This marked recovery is the result of the protected status of two-thirds of the forest, the payment for hydrological environmental services in 29.33% of the forest, as of 2003, and the continuous programs of reforestation, fire control and surveillance by the local communities, circumstances that have allowed the recovery to exceed the disturbance in most of the Bosque de Agua. One-third of the forest disturbance is concentrated in six of the 35 municipalities in the southern region, caused by clandestine logging by organized gangs, due to the state of ungovernability that reigns in these municipalities. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12665-021-10025-w.