Abstract
Efficient and accurate methods to estimate insulin sensitivity (S(I)) and β-cell function (BCF) are of great importance for studying the pathogenesis and treatment effectiveness of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Existing methods range in sensitivity, input data, and technical requirements. Oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs) are preferred because they are simpler and more physiological than intravenous methods. However, current analytical methods for OGTT-derived S(I) and BCF also range in complexity; the oral minimal models require mathematical expertise for deconvolution and fitting differential equations, and simple algebraic surrogate indices (e.g., Matsuda index, insulinogenic index) may produce unphysiological values. We developed a new insulin secretion and sensitivity (ISS) model for clinical research that provides precise and accurate estimates of SI and BCF from a standard OGTT, focusing on effectiveness, ease of implementation, and pragmatism. This model was developed by fitting a pair of differential equations to glucose and insulin without need of deconvolution or C-peptide data. This model is derived from a published model for longitudinal simulation of T2D progression that represents glucose-insulin homeostasis, including postchallenge suppression of hepatic glucose production and first- and second-phase insulin secretion. The ISS model was evaluated in three diverse cohorts across the lifespan. The new model had a strong correlation with gold-standard estimates from intravenous glucose tolerance tests and insulin clamps. The ISS model has broad applicability among diverse populations because it balances performance, fidelity, and complexity to provide a reliable phenotype of T2D risk.NEW & NOTEWORTHY The pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is determined by a balance between insulin sensitivity (S(I)) and β-cell function (BCF), which can be determined by gold standard direct measurements or estimated by fitting differential equation models to oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs). We propose and validate a new differential equation model that is simpler to use than current models and requires less data while maintaining good correlation and agreement with gold standards. Matlab and Python code is freely available.