Abstract
The lack or instability of the pension system for the elderly in rural China has become a paramount obstacle for sustainable land transfer, namely land use right transfer among farmers, in the context of aging. The New Rural Pension System (NRPS), a pilot project that provided basic security for the elderly, was implemented in 10% of counties in 2009 and rapidly promoted nationwide in China. This study evaluates the impact of NRPS on farmland transfer by developing econometric models by employing the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) from 2011 to 2015. The participation rate in NRPS increased from 25.87% in 2011 to 80.85% in 2015, and the participation rate in farmland transfer rose from 11.56% to 24.04%. Everything else being held equal, the probability of farmers who transferred out their land increased by approximately 13% and the land area has been transferred increased by 11.2% due to participation in NRPS, indicating that the NRPS improved the operation efficiency of land rental market. Furthermore, the heterogeneity analysis showed that the probability and area mentioned above had a significant upward trend with the increase of the time and insured amount of participation in NRPS, which reduced dependence on farmland for the elderly and promoted the sustainability of land transfer. The government should further encourage farmers to increase the coverage and insured amount of pension system in the context of aging. Meanwhile, a platform to promote land transfer should be established to provide information about land supply and demand and reduce the transaction cost of land rental market.