Abstract
With global warming, China's agricultural products are facing severe production conditions and a complex international trade situation. In order to clarify the relationship between climate change and China's agricultural trade, this paper uses the GTAP model to explore the impact of climate change on China's agricultural trade from the perspectives of agricultural production and supply, energy substitution and trade policy. The results show that: (1) From the overall effect, the production supply risk and energy substitution risk caused by climate change have a positive impact on China's import trade, among which the energy substitution risk has brought about an import trade growth of 38.050%, the production supply risk has brought about an import trade growth of 12.635%, and the trade policy risk has a negative impact, bringing about an import trade decline of 12.589%. (2) Under the impact of production and supply risks caused by climate change, the import volume of different industrial sectors has increased by varying degrees, including livestock products (16.521%) > food crops (14.162%) > cash crops (7.220%). The increase in import trade mainly comes from the United States (10.731%), Canada (10.650%) and Australia (9.455%). (3) Under the impact of energy substitution risk caused by climate change, the increase in import trade was concentrated in food crops (48.144%) and livestock products (42.834%), mainly from the United States (57.098%), the European Union (55.014%) and Canada (53.508%). (4) Under the impact of trade policy risks caused by climate change, the import trade of different industrial sectors showed a downward trend, with cash crops (13.039%) > livestock products (12.588%) > cash crops (12.140%). The countries and regions with significant decline in import trade were ASEAN (-46.131%) and the United States (-28.028%). The trade deficit shifted to surplus, and the terms of trade were improved. Therefore, this paper suggests that we should deal with the impact of climate change on agricultural trade by developing "climate smart" agriculture, actively responding to low-carbon trade measures, and establishing an agricultural trade promotion mechanism to address the risk of climate change.