Abstract
With the acceleration of economic and social development and the increasing competition between multi-functional spaces, the coordination and stability of land space have been seriously affected. In order to simulate the conflict pattern of "production, living ecological" space and analyze its evolution characteristics, taking Qianjiang City as the research area and based on the current data of land use, the FLUS (Future Land Use Simulation) model and spatial conflict measurement model are used to calculate the change trend of "production, living ecological" spatial conflict in Qianjiang City in the past and in the future. The research results are of great significance for the scientific use of land space and the optimization of regional development patterns. The results show that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the level of spatial conflict in Qianjiang City showed an upward trend, the proportion of medium and above conflict units gradually increased, and the conflict level in the study area gradually became dominated by strong conflict. (2) Due to the process of urbanization and the continuous growth of population and GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the construction land in Qianjiang City shows a rapid increase trend under three scenarios, and the cultivated land area shows a downward trend. (3) In 2035, under the three scenarios, the spatial conflict in Qianjiang City will be strengthened, mainly at the level of medium and above. (4) According to the change degree of conflict transformation, 15 change types are divided into five functional zones: ecological protection zone, ecological conservation zone, modern agriculture zone, urban-rural development coordination zone and urban optimization zone.