Abstract
BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is a global health emergency, and SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia poses significant challenges to health systems worldwide. Renal transplant recipients (RTRs) are a special group and are more vulnerable to viral pneumonia. However, few studies have elucidated the risk factors of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in RTRs infected with COVID-19. This study aimed to build a risk prediction model for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia among RTRs based on demographic and clinical information. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study among 383 RTRs (age ≥ 18 years) diagnosed with COVID-19 from December 21, 2022, to March 26, 2023. Patients' demographic and clinical information was collected through a questionnaire survey combined with electronic medical records. A stepwise logistic regression model was established to test the predictors of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. We assessed the diagnostic performance of the model by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit test. RESULTS: Our study showed that the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia among RTRs was 31.1%. Older age (OR = 2.08-3.37,95%CI:1.05-7.23), shorter post-transplantation duration (OR = 0.92,95% CI: 0.87,0.99), higher post-transplant Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) (OR = 1.84, 95%CI: 1.14,2.98), pulmonary infection history (OR = 3.44, 95%CI: 1.459, 8.099, P = 0.005), fatigue (OR = 2.11, 95%CI: 1.14, 3.90), cough (OR = 2.03, 95%CI: 1.08, 3.81), and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at COVID-19 diagnosis (OR = 0.98, 95%CI:0.97,0.99) predicted a higher risk for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. The model showed good diagnostic performance with Chi-Square = 10.832 (P > 0.05) and AUC = 0.839 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed a high incidence of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia among RTRs, and we built a risk prediction model for SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia based on patients' demographic and clinical characteristics. The model can help identify RTRs infected with COVID-19 at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia to inform timely, targeted, and effective prevention and intervention efforts.