Abstract
Recent global logistics and geopolitical challenges draw attention to the potential raw material shortages for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. Here, we analyze the long-term energy and sustainability prospects to ensure a secure and resilient midstream and downstream value chain for the U.S. EV battery market amid uncertain market expansion and evolving battery technologies. With current battery technologies, reshoring and ally-shoring the midstream and downstream EV battery manufacturing will reduce the carbon footprint by 15% and energy use by 5 to 7%. While next-generation cobalt-free battery technologies will achieve up to 27% carbon emission reduction, transitioning to 54% less carbon-intensive blade lithium iron phosphate may diminish the mitigation benefits of supply chain restructuring. Our findings underscore the importance of adopting nickel from secondary sources and nickel-rich ores. However, the advantages of restructuring the U.S. EV battery supply chain depend on projected battery technology advancements.