Abstract
Since China proposed building a national park system in 2017, the establishment of a planning system for nature reserves, with national parks as the main body, is being actively promoted around the country. Among them, scientific ecological space management and control zoning (ESMCZ) is an important link in maintaining the ecological stability of national parks. How to zone national parks and how to improve the precision of zoning has become a new task for national parks. Therefore, this study takes the Giant Panda National Park as the study area, takes ecosystem services and land use/cover change as the research perspective, integrates the InVEST model, PLUS model and bayes belief network (BBN) model, and builds a set of ecological space management and control zoning (ESMCZ) spatial zoning framework based on raster scale, dividing the study area into strictly protected zone, ecological buffer zone, ecological control zone and controlled development zone. The results showed that: (1) The study area showed an increasing trend in water conservation, soil conservation and carbon storage from 2005 to 2020, and the habitat quality index was generally high. The spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services in the study area was significant, and the effect of a single factor on ecosystem services was most pronounced. (2) Large variation in area for different land uses under natural development scenarios and ecological protection scenarios. In both scenarios, the area of cultivated land, the area of grassland and the area of unused land decrease relative to 2020, and the area of forested land, the area of water and the area of constructed land increase relative to 2020. (3) The Giant Panda National Park is divided into strictly protected zone, ecological buffer zone, ecological control zone and control development zone, of which the strictly protected zone have the largest area and the best ecosystem background condition, and the control development zone have the smallest area and the worst ecosystem background condition. (4) The ecological space management and control zoning (ESMCZ) framework provides a more refined method for the secondary zoning of nature reserves such as the Giant Panda National Park, which is valuable for the implementation of zoning and categorization management for ecological conservation in the Giant Panda National Park.