Abstract
Climate change induced aridity and Euro-American settlement have altered the historical disturbance and flow regimes of large portions of the ponderosa pine forests of northern Arizona. The increased occurrence of high-severity wildfires due to these changes has led to the establishment of various forest restoration programs to protect the region's forests and their watersheds. In 2014, a paired-watershed monitoring project was implemented to compare the impacts of differing levels of forest thinning to watershed hydrology in seven experimental watersheds nested within the Upper Lake Mary (ULM) watershed in Arizona. This study expands the calibration phase of the ULM paired-watershed by synthesizing historic precipitation, surface runoff, groundwater recharge, soil moisture data, and evapotranspiration (ET) data to perform regression analyses and create a holistic water balance for each watershed. The magnitude and timing of seasonal groundwater recharge events were quantified for the first time in this region using a water table fluctuation method. The results showed that recharge did not occur every year and was heavily dependent (P < 0.05) on total winter season precipitation and snowpack duration. On average, recharge composed 9% of the total water budget when present. The results of this study lay the foundation for a greater understanding of how forest restoration alters northern Arizona's forest hydrology and will provide crucial information that should be used in water policy and water resource decision-making as the region plans for future water availability.