A benchmark database of ten years of prospective next-day earthquake forecasts in California from the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

加州地震可预测性研究合作组织提供的十年加州次日地震预测基准数据库

阅读:2

Abstract

Short-term seismicity forecasting models are increasingly developed and deployed for Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) by government agencies and research institutions worldwide. To ensure their reliability, these forecasts must be rigorously tested against future observations in a fully prospective manner, allowing researchers to quantify model performance and build confidence in their predictive capabilities. The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) operated twenty-five fully automated M ≥ 3.95 seismicity models developed by nine research groups from Italy, California, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Between August 2007 and August 2018, these models produced over 50,000 daily forecasts for California, each specifying expected earthquake rates on a predefined space-magnitude grid over 24-hour periods. In this article, we describe the forecast database, summarize the underlying models, and demonstrate how to access and evaluate the forecasts using the open-source pyCSEP Python toolkit. The forecast data are publicly available through Zenodo, and the pyCSEP software is openly available on GitHub. This unprecedented dataset of fully prospective earthquake forecasts provides a critical benchmark for developing and testing next-generation OEF models, fostering advancements in earthquake predictability research.

特别声明

1、本页面内容包含部分的内容是基于公开信息的合理引用;引用内容仅为补充信息,不代表本站立场。

2、若认为本页面引用内容涉及侵权,请及时与本站联系,我们将第一时间处理。

3、其他媒体/个人如需使用本页面原创内容,需注明“来源:[生知库]”并获得授权;使用引用内容的,需自行联系原作者获得许可。

4、投稿及合作请联系:info@biocloudy.com。