Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Although patients with arthritis have significantly increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, effective prediction tools remain limited. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of the Metabolic Score for Insulin Resistance (METS-IR) for CVD events among Chinese patients with arthritis. METHODS: Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), we conducted a 7-year prospective cohort study (2011-2018) involving 1059 patients with arthritis. The primary exposure was baseline METS-IR, and the primary outcome was incident CVD. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to analyse the association between METS-IR and CVD risk, adjusting for demographic characteristics and lifestyle factors. RESULTS: After adjusting for confounding factors, each quartile increase in METS-IR was associated with a 36% increased risk of CVD (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.14-1.61, P < 0.001). Compared with the lowest quartile, the highest quartile showed a 63% increased risk (HR = 1.63, 95% CI: 1.12-2.37, P < 0.05), demonstrating a significant dose-response relationship (P for trend < 0.05). CONCLUSION: METS-IR serves as an effective tool for predicting CVD risk among Chinese patients with arthritis, providing new strategies for early risk identification and prevention.