Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Epidemiological estimates of psoriatic arthritis (PsA) underpin the provision of healthcare, research, and the work of government, charities and patient organizations. Methodological problems impacting prior estimates include small sample sizes, incomplete case ascertainment, and representativeness. We developed a statistical modelling strategy to provide contemporary prevalence and incidence estimates of PsA from 1991 to 2020 in the UK. METHODS: Data from Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) were used to identify cases of PsA between 1st January 1991 and 31st December 2020. To optimize ascertainment, we identified cases of Definite PsA (≥1 Read code for PsA) and Probable PsA (satisfied a bespoke algorithm). Standardized annual rates were calculated using Bayesian multilevel regression with post-stratification to account for systematic differences between CPRD data and the UK population, based on age, sex, socioeconomic status and region of residence. RESULTS: A total of 26 293 recorded PsA cases (all definitions) were identified within the study window (77.9% Definite PsA). Between 1991 and 2020 the standardized prevalence of PsA increased twelve-fold from 0.03-0.37. The standardized incidence of PsA per 100 000 person years increased from 8.97 in 1991-15.08 in 2020, an almost 2-fold increase. Over time, rates were similar between the sexes, and across socioeconomic status. Rates were strongly associated with age, and consistently highest in Northern Ireland. CONCLUSION: The prevalence and incidence of PsA recorded in primary care has increased over the last three decades. The modelling strategy presented can be used to provide contemporary prevalence estimates for musculoskeletal disease using routinely collected primary care data.