Abstract
Given the complexity and uncertainty of the current COVID-19 risks, the elderly people in long-term care facilities are at the highest risk for infection. In order to study the prevention and control strategies of COVID-19 risks in long-term care facilities, this paper uses the prospect theory to construct the decision-making model of COVID-19 risk behavior of long-term care facilities, analyses the risk behavior strategies of the caregivers and managers, and reveals the impact of risk management cost, risk loss and external supervision on the risk behavior decision-making of the caregivers and managers. Furthermore, from the perspective of long-term care facilities, this paper analyzes the constraints that enable it to achieve optimal risk management strategy. Combined with the simulation analysis, it is found that the decision of risk behavior of the caregivers and managers is positively related to the risk behavior choice, risk loss, and supervision. Then, only when the incentives set by the supervision are within a reasonable range can the caregivers and managers be motivated to take proactive risk management strategies. The study has important theoretical and practical significance for the management of COVID-19 risks in long-term care facilities.