Fire system safety risk cognition model and evaluation of major public safety risks

消防系统安全风险认知模型及重大公共安全风险评估

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Abstract

Along with the expansion of city scale, and the increase in the density of population and buildings, the occurrence of a major public fire safety incident in cities will lead to a serious threat to the overall public safety and the sustainable economic and social development of the relevant region. A simple and practical safety risk assessment method of fire prevention in gas stations is of great value for disaster prevention and application in key industries. The constituent elements of a gas station fire prevention safety system are complex, and include equipment, materials, environment, operation, and other factors. This element of information has randomness and temporal dynamics. To promote the transformation of the safety supervision mechanism of gas stations, realize the dual objectives of risk classification and risk dynamic management, and control the gas stations' safety systems the gas stations safety systems are the objectives of our paper. By taking the "fire" risk point of fire prevention in gas stations' system as the research object, this paper puts forward the cognitive path of fire prevention in gas stations' safety system for risk disasters, and explains the coordination between characteristics of inherent, initial, and real risks and the structure of the risk system's attributes. A realistic risk assessment model of fire risk with inherent and dynamic risks is established. An example was introduced to apply the real risk model, and the results were consistent with the actual prediction results, thereby showing the effectiveness and practicability of this method. This risk assessment method can provide a scientific basis for the prevention of fires and control of the fire prevention safety system, showing the changes in risk levels in different stages, and providing risk warning for project managers in taking prompt corresponding risk control countermeasures and improving the efficiency of risk management.

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