Abstract
Water conservation areas play an important role in regional ecological security patterns. The Funiu Mountain water conservation area is located in the densely populated central region of China, where human disturbance to the ecosystem is strong and ecosystem services are facing a very serious situation. Identifying and evaluating the factors leading to changes in the ecosystem service value (ESV) of the Funiu Mountain water conservation area can provide scientific guidance for ecological management and sustainable development. Using multi-source data and machine learning methods, our research reveals the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variation in the ESV, constructs a system of ESV influencing factors from the comprehensive perspectives of the natural environment and human activities, and discusses the comprehensive effects of the influencing factors on the Funiu Mountain area from 2000 to 2015. The results are as follows. (1) From 2000 to 2005, the ESV increased 375 million yuan, and from 2005 to 2015, it decreased 154 million yuan. (2) Hydrological regulation, biodiversity maintenance, soil conservation, gas regulation, and climate regulation were the main types of ecosystem services in the Funiu Mountain area. (3) The ESV was influenced by the comprehensive effects of the natural environment and human activities. Population was the most important influencing factor of the ESV; in addition, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), precipitation, and economic factors had important influences on the ESV. (4) With the intensification of human activities, humanistic factors have surpassed the relatively stable natural factors, becoming the main factors of the ESV. With economic development, the effect of human activities on the ESV may be further intensified in the future.