Abstract
Land use and cover change (LUCC) is one of the most significant parts of global environmental changes, which reflects the interaction between human society and natural resources. In China, the urbanization process is experiencing a rapid sprawl since the reform and open program in 1978, and there has been a serious change in situation in the human⁻land relationship. In this paper, taking Jiangsu province located in the eastern coastal developed region as an example, the historic evolution process of the land use situation from 1990 to 2010 was explored. Landsat images from three periods were analyzed, using the land use transition matrix model, the land use dynamic degree model, and the land use degree model to evaluate the LUCC of Jiangsu during two research periods from 1990 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2010. Additionally, logistic regression models and some quantitative analysis were applied to identify the major potential driving factors behind the LUCC during the research period based on different dimensions. The results showed the following: (1) the most obvious change was the continuous increase of built-up area and the decrease of arable land, which reflected the deterioration of the ecological environment and the accelerate of the urbanization trend. (2) The land use change dynamic degree from 2000 to 2010 was much greater than that from 1990 to 2000. (3) Socio-economic elements and human activities were the major driving forces of LUCC in Jiangsu province. Amongst these forces, the driving factors of the population change, GDP, per capita household income, and per capita housing area have an obvious effect on the arable land loss and the built-up area expansion.