Abstract
Algal biofuels have been offered as an alternative to fossil fuels, based on claims that microalgae can provide a highly productive source of compounds as feedstocks for sustainable transport fuels. Life cycle analyses identify algal productivity as a critical factor affecting commercial and environmental viability. Here, we use mechanistic modelling of the biological processes driving microalgal growth to explore optimal production scenarios in an industrial setting, enabling us to quantify limits to algal biofuels potential. We demonstrate how physiological and operational trade-offs combine to restrict the potential for solar-powered algal-biodiesel production in open ponds to a ceiling of ca. 8000 L ha(-1) year(-1). For industrial-scale operations, practical considerations limit production to ca. 6000 L ha(-1) year(-1). According to published economic models and life cycle analyses, such production rates cannot support long-term viable commercialisation of solar-powered cultivation of natural microalgae strains exclusively as feedstock for biofuels. The commercial viability of microalgal biofuels depends critically upon limitations in microalgal physiology (primarily in rates of C-fixation); we discuss the scope for addressing this bottleneck concluding that even deployment of genetically modified microalgae with radically enhanced characteristics would leave a very significant logistical if not financial burden.