Abstract
INTRODUCTION: The increasing frequency and severity of climate risks have significantly impacted public health behaviors, particularly sports participation. Understanding how individuals respond to these environmental shocks is crucial for designing effective health and climate adaptation policies. This study examines the short-term and long-term effects of climate risks on sports participation among middle-aged and young adults, exploring the underlying mechanisms driving these behavioral changes. METHODS: Using data from the 2014 to 2022 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study employs fixed-effects models, two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation, and a four-stage mediation model to address potential endogeneity and uncover causal relationships. Climate risks are assessed using multiple proxy variables, and robustness checks ensure the reliability of the findings. RESULTS: In the short term, climate risks significantly reduce the frequency of sports participation. This effect remains consistent across different model specifications and estimation methods. Mechanism analysis reveals that climate risks lower life satisfaction and increase digital engagement, both of which influence individuals' physical and mental health. While climate risks initially discourage sports participation, long-term adaptation occurs through digital engagement and indoor exercise, leading to improved health outcomes. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the negative short-term effects are more pronounced in urban and western regions, with rural and western areas experiencing no significant long-term positive effects. DISCUSSION: This study highlights both the inhibitive short-term effects and adaptive long-term responses to climate risks in sports participation. The findings provide insights into how individuals adjust their health-related behaviors under environmental stress and offer policy recommendations to promote climate adaptation and public health through targeted interventions.