Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Vehicle emissions have become an important source of urban air pollution, and the assessment of air pollution emission characteristics and health effects caused by specific pollution sources can provide scientific basis for air quality management. METHODS: In this paper, vehicle PM(2.5) pollution in typical urban agglomerations of China (the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTHUA), the triangle of the Central China urban agglomeration (TCCUA) and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration (CCUA)) were used as research samples to evaluate the emission characteristics, health effects and economic losses of vehicle PM(2.5) pollution based on the emission inventory, air quality model and exposure-response function from 2010 to 2020. RESULTS: The results indicated that PM(2.5) emissions from vehicles in the three urban agglomerations during 2010-2020 first showed an upward yearly trend and then showed a slow decrease in recent years. Heavy-duty trucks and buses are the main contribution vehicles of PM(2.5), and the contribution rates of light-duty vehicles to PM(2.5) is increasing year by year. The contribution rate of PM(2.5) in Beijing decreased significantly. In addition to capital cities and municipalities directly under the central Government, the emission of pollutants in other cities cannot be ignored. The evaluation results of the impact of PM(2.5) pollution from vehicles on population health show that: the number of each health endpoint caused by PM(2.5) pollution from vehicles in the BTHUA and CCUA showed an overall upward trend, while the TCCUA showed a downward trend in recent years. Among them, PM(2.5) pollution from vehicles in the three major urban agglomerations cause about 78,200 (95% CI: 20,500-138,800) premature deaths, 122,800 (95% CI: 25,600-220,500) inpatients, and 628,400 (95% CI: 307,400-930,400) outpatients and 1,332,400 (95% CI: 482,700-2,075,600) illness in 2020. The total health economic losses caused by PM(2.5) pollution from vehicles in the three major urban agglomerations in 2010, 2015 and 2020 were 68.25 billion yuan (95% CI: 21.65-109.16), 206.33 billion yuan (95% CI: 66.20-326.20) and 300.73 billion yuan (95% CI: 96.79-473.16), accounting for 0.67% (95% CI: 0.21-1.07%), 1.19% (95% CI: 0.38%-1.88%) and 1.21% (95% CI: 0.39%-1.90%) of the total GDP of these cities. DISCUSSION: Due to the differences in vehicle population, PM(2.5) concentration, population number and economic value of health terminal units, there are differences in health effects and economic losses among different cities in different regions. Among them, the problems of health risks and economic losses were relatively prominent in Beijing, Chengdu, Chongqing, Tianjin and Wuhan.