Abstract
Electricity supply in European countries faces a number of challenges, such as achieving carbon neutrality, tackling rising prices, reducing dependence on fossil fuels, including fossil fuel imports. To achieve these goals, the electricity systems of all European countries will have to undergo major changes, while taking into account technical, environmental, economic and social objectives. Our simulations provide essential data for this transition by analyzing different power plant portfolios and electricity consumption scenarios. The analyses focus on the cooperation of nuclear power and weather-dependent renewables, and on the possible role that battery-based electricity storage can play in the Hungarian electricity system. In this paper, we present the experience gained in setting up an electricity market model and the results of running the model on the electricity systems of Hungary and its six neighboring countries (Slovakia, Romania, Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia and Austria), taking into account the constraints of the cross-border capacities. The results of the sensitivity analysis for the 2030 power plant portfolios, battery capacities and renewables analyzed in this paper cover Hungary's import/export position, the energy source structure of its electricity generation, battery operation, CO2 emissions from electricity generation, expected prices in the system and the utilization parameters of nuclear power plants.