Abstract
Type 1 diabetes is a chronic, immune-mediated disease characterised by the destruction of insulin-producing cells. Standardised registry data show that type 1 diabetes incidence has increased 3-4% over the past three decades, supporting the role of environmental factors. Although several factors have been associated with type 1 diabetes, none of the associations are of a magnitude that could explain the rapid increase in incidence alone. Moreover, evidence of changing prevalence of these exposures over time is insufficient. Multiple factors could simultaneously explain the changing type 1 diabetes incidence, or the magnitude of observed associations could have been underestimated because of exposure measurement error, or the mismodelling of complex exposure-time-response relationships. The identification of environmental factors influencing the risk of type 1 diabetes and increased understanding of the cause at the individual level, regardless of the ability to explain the changing incidence at the population level, is important because of the implications for prevention.