Abstract
BACKGROUND: Antiviral therapy improves the clinical outcomes of patients with HBV-related cirrhosis. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the incidence rate of HCC in patients with HBV-related recompensated, compensated, or decompensated cirrhosis based on the latest Baveno VII criteria. METHODS: In this two-center retrospective study, HBV-related patients with cirrhosis were enrolled and treated with first-line nucleos(t)ide analogues therapy for at least 12 months. Participants were classified into 3 groups: (1) compensated group, (2) decompensated group, or (3) recompensated group according to Baveno VII criteria. Multivariate regression models and propensity score matching were used to identify the predictors of HCC. RESULTS: Of the 404 patients recruited, during a median follow-up of 44.5 months (interquartile range 26.8, 57.0 months), 233 (57.7%), 100 (24.8%), and 71(17.6%) patients had compensated, recompensated, and decompensated cirrhosis. In total, 38 developed HCC. The cumulative incidence of HCC development at 2, 4, and 6 years was 1.3%, 5.4%, and 20.0% in the compensated group, 1.2%, 5.2%, and 24.5% in the recompensated group, and 2.1%, 23.6%, and 41.8% in the decompensated group, respectively. In the multivariate Cox regression model, compared with the recompensated group, the decompensated group had a significant increased risk for the development of HCC (aHR 2.55; 95% CI: 1.240-5.240; p = 0.027), while the compensated group had similar HCC risk for the development of HCC (aHR 1.41; 95% CI: 0.540-3.730; p = 0.835). Propensity score-matching analysis between the recompensated and compensated groups (84 pairs) and propensity score-matching analysis between the recompensated and decompensated groups (62 pairs) showed similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Achieving recompensation reduced the risk of HCC in patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis, while the risk remained comparable to that of compensated cirrhosis.