Abstract
The security of natural gas supply is not only an important part of China's energy security, it also serves as a basic guarantee for China to achieve its dual carbon target and energy transition. Therefore, it is very important to conduct research on the security of China's natural gas supply and demand in the context of the dual carbon target. This paper develops a system dynamics (SD) model for natural gas demand forecasting and a generalized Weng's model for production forecasting to predict China's natural gas demand and production under different scenarios during 2022-2060, and then analyzes China's natural gas supply and demand situation and potential import and external dependence based on the forecast results. The simulation results show that (1) under the two demand scenarios D1 and D2, China's natural gas demand will peak at 766.02 billion m3 in 2046 and 708.07 billion m(3) in 2036 and decline to 521.65 billion m(3) and 278.99 billion m(3) in 2060 respectively; (2) under the two production scenarios S1 and S2, China's natural gas production will peak at 344.581 billion m(3) in 2042 and 366.341 billion m(3) in 2043 and decrease to about 250 billion m(3) in 2060; (3) before 2035, the security of natural gas supply in China will face a challenging situation, the total volume of potential gas imports will gradually increase to about 350 billion m(3), and China's dependence on natural gas imports will exceed 50%; after 2035, the progress of China's energy transition will improve the security of its natural gas supply. This paper proposes four recommendations for expanding gas demand in the near to medium term, promoting conventional and unconventional gas production, diversifying import channels and building emergency reserves to ensure China's gas supply security and enable gas to play a "bridging" role in the energy transition.