Did Covid-19 Kill Trump Politically? The Pandemic and Voting in the 2020 Presidential Election

新冠疫情是否在政治上终结了特朗普?疫情与2020年总统大选投票

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Abstract

OBJECTIVE: This article investigates the impact of public reactions to the Covid-19 panemic on voting for former President Donald Trump in the 2020 American presidential election. METHODS: The impact of the pandemic on voting is assessed by multivariate statistical analyses of representative national survey data gathered before and after the 2020 presidential election. RESULTS: Analyses show that voters reacted very negatively to Trump's handling of the pandemic. Controlling for several other relevant factors, these reactions affected voting for Trump and exerted a significant impact on the election outcome. CONCLUSION: Before the onset of Covid-19 Trump had a very narrow path to victory in 2020, and the pandemic did much to ensure his defeat.

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