Abstract
This study presents the statistical results of patients who had been recently discharged from hospital within one month after their treatment in the emergency department (ED). Using routine (14,881) MCV and RDW measurements and statistical tools, we could predict acute mortality in these patients (N = 1158), adjusted for age. It is likely that an increase in the MCV and RDW parameters may correlate in some of our older patients with a poor prognosis with an increased level of circulating IGF-I, which affects red blood cell parameters. The research presents the prognostic statistics of the analyzed clinical factors as well as speculates on the potential correlation of these parameters with the regenerative potential of stem-cell compartment. Analysis shows that both MCV and RDW are statistically significant (Area Under Curve [AUC], lower CI 95% >50%) predictors of acute mortality in ED patients. The classification of patients based on their MCV threshold (= 92.2 units) indicates a proper clinical prognosis in nearly 6 of 10 subjects (AUC >58%), whereas taking into account RDW (=13.8%) indicates a proper clinical prognosis in no more than 7 of 10 individuals. The report concludes that by employing strongly fitting (95%) quadratic modeling of the ORs against the biomarkers studied, one can notice a similar relationship between MCV and RDW as diagnostic tools to predict regenerative potential and clinical outcomes in older patients. Although RDW alone had a 10% higher diagnostic value in terms of predicting early death in the emergency department in patients that were admitted to the ED and subsequently hospitalized, also taking the MCV measurement improved accuracy in predicting clinical outcomes by 2.5% compared to RDW alone.