Abstract
Introduction: Acute aortic syndrome (AAS) is a group of acute and critical conditions, including acute aortic dissection (AAD), acute intramural haematoma and penetrating aortic ulcer. High mortality and morbidity rates result in a poor patient prognosis. Prompt diagnoses and timely interventions are paramount for saving patients' lives. In recent years, risk models for AAD have been established worldwide; however, a risk evaluation system for AAS is still lacking in China. Therefore, this study aims to develop an early warning and risk scoring system in combination with the novel potential biomarker soluble ST2 (sST2) for AAS. Methods and analysis: This multicentre, prospective, observational study will recruit patients diagnosed with AAS at three tertiary referral centres from 1 January 2020 to 31 December 2023. We will analyse the discrepancies in sST2 levels in patients with different AAS types and explore the accuracy of sST2 in distinguishing between them. We will also incorporate potential risk factors and sST2 into a logistic regression model to establish a logistic risk scoring system for predicting postoperative death and prolonged intensive care unit stay in patients with AAS. Ethics and dissemination: This study was registered on the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry website (http://www. chictr. org. cn/). Ethical approval was obtained from the human research ethics committees of Beijing Anzhen Hospital (KS2019016). The ethics review board of each participating hospital agreed to participate. The final risk prediction model will be published in an appropriate journal and disseminated as a mobile application for clinical use. Approval and anonymised data will be shared. Trial registration number: ChiCTR1900027763.