Abstract
In 2014 and 2015, Southern Taiwan experienced two unprecedented outbreaks, with more than 10,000 laboratory-confirmed dengue cases in each outbreak. The present study was aimed to investigate the influence of meteorological and spatial factors on dengue outbreaks in Southern Taiwan and was conducted in Kaohsiung City, which is the most affected area in Taiwan. The distributed lag nonlinear model was used to investigate the role of climatic factors in the 2014 and 2015 dengue outbreaks. Spatial statistics in the Geographic Information System was applied to study the relationship between the dengue spreading pattern and locations of traditional markets (human motility) in the 2015 dengue outbreak. Meteorological analysis results suggested that the relative risk of dengue fever increased when the weekly average temperature was more than 15°C at lagged weeks 5 to 18. Elevated relative risk of dengue was observed when the weekly average rainfall was more than 150 mm at lagged weeks 12 to 20. The spatial analysis revealed that approximately 83% of dengue cases were located in the 1000 m buffer zone of traditional market, with statistical significance. These findings support the influence of climatic factors and human motility on dengue outbreaks. Furthermore, the study analysis may help authorities to identify hotspots and decide the timing for implementation of dengue control programs.