Abstract
Recent studies have provided new insights into nonlinearities of insulin action in the hypoglycemic range and into glucagon kinetics as it relates to response to hypoglycemia. Based on these data, we developed a new version of the UVA/PADOVA Type 1 Diabetes Simulator, which was submitted to FDA in 2013 (S2013). The model of glucose kinetics in hypoglycemia has been improved, implementing the notion that insulin-dependent utilization increases nonlinearly when glucose decreases below a certain threshold. In addition, glucagon kinetics and secretion and action models have been incorporated into the simulator: glucagon kinetics is a single compartment; glucagon secretion is controlled by plasma insulin, plasma glucose below a certain threshold, and glucose rate of change; and plasma glucagon stimulates with some delay endogenous glucose production. A refined statistical strategy for virtual patient generation has been adopted as well. Finally, new rules for determining insulin to carbs ratio (CR) and correction factor (CF) of the virtual patients have been implemented to better comply with clinical definitions. S2013 shows a better performance in describing hypoglycemic events. In addition, the new virtual subjects span well the real type 1 diabetes mellitus population as demonstrated by good agreement between real and simulated distribution of patient-specific parameters, such as CR and CF. S2013 provides a more reliable framework for in silico trials, for testing glucose sensors and insulin augmented pump prediction methods, and for closed-loop single/dual hormone controller design, testing, and validation.