Abstract
Hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) is a predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. Studies on anti-viral therapy have shown that the use of NUC therapy in HBV patients could reduce the incidence of HCC. However, the incidence of HCC continues to increase after long-term anti-viral therapy. The relationship between HBcrAg and HCC development in CHB-related liver cirrhosis (LC) patients undergoing long-term anti-viral therapy is still unclear. This study enrolled 1108 treatment-naïve CHB patients diagnosed with HBV-related LC receiving NUC therapy from April 1999 to February 2015. The baseline biomarkers, disease history, and following results were collected by the hospital. Among the 1108 patients, 219 developed HCC within a median follow-up period of 6.85 years. A multivariable Cox regression model was used, with adjustment for age, gender, FIB-4, DM, and HBsAg-HQ. The adjusted hazard ratios for the HBcrAg tertile levels were 1.70 (95%CI: 1.21, 2.39) and 2.14 (95%CI: 1.50, 3.05) for levels 3.4-4.9 and >4.9 logU/mL, respectively, compared with levels ≤3.4. The effect of the HBcrAg level on HCC incidence was found to be significantly modified by HBsAg-HQ, where lower HBsAg-HQ (≤ 3) values were associated with a significantly higher risk, but HBsAg-HQ levels >3 were not. Our results highlight that, after adjustment for potential confounding factors, patients with CHB-related LC and higher HBcrAg levels are at significant risk for HCC development, even while undergoing long-term effective anti-viral therapy. The HBcrAg level is therefore an independent risk factor for HCC development, especially for patients with HBsAg-HQ levels <3.