Abstract
BACKGROUND: The ability to predict survival in patients with lymph node metastasis has long been elusive. After surgery, the basis for decision-making on the combination treatment of patients is not clear. The purpose of this study was thus to build a survival nomogram model to effectively predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and lymph node metastasis. The number of dissected lymph nodes (NDLN), number of positive lymph nodes (NPLN), lymph node ratio (LNR), and log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) were included in this study to determine the risk factors in patients with advanced NSCLC. METHODS: The data of 5,132 patients with NSCLC and lymph node metastasis (N1 or N2) were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database according to inclusion and exclusion criteria and used as the training cohort. We enrolled 117 patients from the First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine as the external validation cohort. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed to determine the best cutoff values for predicting the prognosis of patients with NSCLC. Based on the risk factors affecting prognosis, a nomogram was constructed using univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models. The discrimination ability of the nomogram was evaluated with the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves. For the independent risk factors, survival curves were drawn using Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: ROC curve analysis showed that the optimal NPLN cut-off value was 4, LNR was 0.26, and LODDS was -0.25, respectively. However, LNR was nonsignificant in multivariate analysis, with a P value of 0.274. The novel survival nomogram model included seven independent risk factors, among which were NPLN, LODDS, and chemotherapy. Model 4, which included N stage, NPLN, and LODDS, had a higher likelihood ratio (LR) and C-index than did the other models. The C-index was 0.648 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.636-0.659] in the training cohort and 0.807 (95% CI: 0.751-0.863) in the external validation cohort, showing good prognostic accuracy and discrimination ability. According to the median risk score, the patients in the training cohort and external validation cohort were divided into high-risk and low-risk groups, between which significant differences in OS were found. In the training cohort, age, sex, T stage, N stage, NPLN, LODDS, and chemotherapy were significantly associated with OS (P<0.001). In the external validation cohort, T stage, NPLN, LODDS, and chemotherapy were found to be correlated with OS. CONCLUSIONS: The NPLN and LODDS nomogram is an accurate survival prediction tool for patients with N1 or N2 NSCLC. Patients with lymph node metastasis can benefit from chemotherapy, but no evidence shows that radiotherapy is necessary for patients with resectable NSCLC.