Abstract
BACKGROUND: Patients with stage I lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) have varying postoperative prognosis. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of postoperative longitudinal change of serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level in patients with stage I LUAD. METHODS: The study cohort comprised 241 patients with stage I LUAD completely resected with single-port video-assisted thoracic surgery (VATS). The patients were categorized into 4 groups according to the postoperative longitudinal change of serum CEA levels measured in the third and sixth months after surgery: the NN group (continuously normal), HN group (increase first and then decrease), NH group (decrease first and then increase), and HH group (continuously high). Recurrence-free survival (RFS) was analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by log-rank test. A nomogram was developed to predict recurrence in the stage I LUAD patients. RESULTS: In univariate analysis, differentiation (P<0.001), visceral pleural invasion (VPI) (P=0.025), tumor diameter (P<0.001), tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage (P=0.008), preoperative CEA levels (≥10.0 vs. <10.0 ng/mL, P<0.001), and postoperative CEA grouping (NH/HH vs. NN/HN, P<0.001) were significant prognostic factors for stage I LUAD patients. Multivariate analysis showed that tumor diameter (P=0.009) and postoperative CEA grouping (P<0.001) were considered to be independent prognostic factors of postoperative recurrence of stage I LUAD. Tumor diameter (≥20 mm) and postoperative CEA (NH/HH vs. NN/HN) were associated with worse RFS. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed that postoperative CEA (NH/HH vs. NN/HN) have high sensitivity (64.7%) and specificity (83.2%) for early prediction of postoperative recurrence of stage I LUAD. The area under curve (AUC) value was 0.745. The nomogram based on multivariate Cox regression had a concordance index (value of 0.789). The calibration plot showed that the predicted probabilities closely matched the observed probabilities. CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal change in serum CEA level after surgery was found to be an independent unfavorable prognostic factor in completely resected stage I LUAD patients. The NH group and HH group were significantly associated with worse RFS. A nomogram was established to predict the postoperative recurrence of patients with stage I LUAD.