Abstract
There have been concerns about the effects of increases in maternal age since the 1980s on the prevalence of Down's syndrome. This study examined changes in the distribution of maternal age in England and Wales from 1938 to 2010. The live birth prevalence of Down's syndrome in the absence of screening and subsequent termination was estimated using the numbers of babies born in England and Wales according to maternal age and the maternal age-related risk of a birth with Down's syndrome. The proportion of women age 35 years or older at the time of giving birth reached a peak of 20% in 1945, declined to 5.5% in 1977 and rose to 20% in 2007. In the absence of screening and subsequent termination, the estimated live birth prevalence of Down's syndrome would have mirrored these changes (2.3 per 1000 births in 1945, 1.2 per 1000 in 1976 and 2.2 per 1000 in 2007). The observed live birth prevalence (recorded by the National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register) was1.0 per 1000 from 1989 to 2010, due to screening and subsequent termination. In conclusion since the 1980s there has been an increase in the mean maternal age and in the expected prevalence of Down's syndrome. When put in a longer historical context the current expected live birth prevalence is similar to that in the 1940s and the observed live birth prevalence is about 54% less than expected, due to screening and subsequent termination, and has remained reasonably constant since 1989 at 1.0 per 1000 births.