Abstract
The authors tested the hypotheses that (1) estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) predicts cardiovascular disease (CVD) or mortality risk among hypertensive patients, (2) associations are curvilinear, and (3) diabetes modifies these associations. Data from a 10-year follow-up of 3179 hypertensive patients 18 years and older were analyzed. Measurements included eGFR and CVD risk factors, and outcomes were CVD and mortality. Cox models were developed to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for different endpoints for a 1-standard deviation (SD) increment in eGFR. The nonlinearity in associations was examined by cubic spline method. Mean (SD) age of the participants (59.0% women) was 56.3 (12.3) years. During follow-up (10-year), 629 incident cases of CVD (296 women) and 320 deaths (130 women) were documented. The incidence rate of different outcomes decreased across increasing eGFR quintiles. Among men, irrespective of their diabetes status, eGFR was inversely associated with risk of mortality. Among women, irrespective of their diabetes status, eGFR did not predict mortality. Neither among men nor among women did eGFR predict CVD or coronary heart disease. No evidence was found for nonlinearity in these associations. eGFR was independently associated with mortality among hypertensive men with or without diabetes. When information on traditional CVD risk factors was available, eGFR provided no additional predictive value for CVD.