Abstract
Mine water inrush is a serious threat to mine safety production. It is very important to identify water inrush source types quickly to prevent and control water damage. In this study, the aqueous chemical components Na(+) + K(+), Ca(2+), Mg(2+), Cl(-), SO(4)(2-) and HCO(3-) of different aquifers in Pingdingshan coalfield were selected as the characteristic values, and the Surface water, Quaternary pore water, Carboniferous limestone karst water, Permian sandstone water, and Cambrian limestone karst water were used as the labels. An intelligent water source discrimination model is proposed by combining data mining, classification models, and reinforcement learning. As outlier data in the samples may interfere with the model recognition ability, the data distribution range was analyzed using box plots, and 20 groups of abnormal samples were excluded. The processed water chemistry data were divided into 80% learning samples and 20% test samples, and the learning samples were fed into a light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) for training. The tree-structured parson estimator (TPE) obtains the optimal values of the main parameters of LightGBM in a very short time. Substituting the hyperparameters back into the model yields a 13.9% improvement in the accuracy of the model, proving the effectiveness of the TPE algorithm. To further validate the performance of the model, TPE-LightGBM is compared and analyzed with a Random Search-Multi Layer Perceptron Machine (RS-MLP) and Genetic Algorithm-Extreme Gradient Boosting Tree (GA-SVM). The accuracy of TPE-LightGBM, RS-MLP, and GA-SVM is 0.931, 0.759, 0.724 in that order, and the generalization error RMSE is 0.415, 1.05, and 1.313 in that order. The results show that TPE-LightGBM is more advantageous in water source identification and is more resistant to overfitting. By calculating and comparing the information gain of each variable, the contribution of Ca(2+) is the highest, so it is necessary to pay attention to the change in Ca(2+) concentration. TPE-LightGBM's high accuracy and generalization ability have a good prospect for the identification of sudden water source types.