Abstract
Elymus dahuricus Turcz (E.dahuricus) is an excellent forage grass with very high economic value and high adaptability.Predicting the potential habitat distribution of E.dahuricus in China can provide solid and scientific theoretical support for the effective utilization of E.dahuricus germplasm resources.In this study, 180 occurrence sites of E.dahuricus and 38 environmental variables were selected, and the optimized Maxent model and ArcGIS V10.8 software were used to simulate and predict the potential distribution areas of E.dahuricus in China for the present (1970-2020),2050s (2041-2060) and 2090s (2081-2100). The results showed that (1) the simulated AUC value of MaxEnt model is 0.850,with high simulation accuracy; (2)Temperature seasonality(bio4),min temperature of coldest month(bio6),precipitation of driest quarter(bio17),precipitation seasonality(bio15),cation exchange capacity of topsoil(t_cec_soil) and altitude(elev) were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of E.dahuricus; (3)Presently, the suitable habitats were mainly distributed in Xinjiang, Xizang, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Hebei, Beijing, Liaoning, Chongqing and other provinces.According to our results that the total suitable habitat area will increase under future climate scenarios and the general trend of mass center toward higher latitude.Our results provide wild resource information and theoretical reference for the protection and rational utilization of E.dahuricus.