Abstract
BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to utilize data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 to estimate the patterns and prevalence of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) from 1990 to 2019, with the intention of informing the development of efficacious intervention strategies. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data from the GBD 2019 were examined to determine the prevalence, incidence, and rates of years lived with disability (YLDs) associated with mTBI across global geographic populations from 1990 to 2019. To assess temporal patterns, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) and age-standardized rates were computed. Additionally, an age-period-cohort model (APC model) framework was employed to analyze potential trends in incidence based on age, period, and birth cohort. RESULTS: In 2019, there were a total of 12 268.5 thousand incident cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 992.66-1602.07), 11 482.5 thousand prevalent cases (95% UI 107.59-123.52), and 1366.9 thousand YLDs (95% UI 96.36-183.35) of mTBI worldwide. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs exhibited a decline from 1990 to 2019. Across all age groups, males had higher prevalence, incidence, and YLD rates. Furthermore, middle-aged and elderly adults experienced a greater disease burden. The primary causes of the global mTBI burden in 2019 were falls and road injuries. According to the APC model, the age effect trend exhibited a similar pattern across individual sociodemographic index (SDI) groups, characterized by an initial increase, followed by a decrease and a subsequent increase. Regarding the period effect, each SDI group demonstrated variation, with the middle SDI group notably displaying a consistent increase. Furthermore, in terms of the birth effect, the middle-SDI group experienced the most substantial and continuous increase. CONCLUSION: The global incident cases and prevalent cases of mTBI increased significantly from 1990 to 2019, with a heavier burden observed in males, older adults, and in low SDI such as Afghanistan. More efforts are needed in the prevention and management of mTBI, such as reducing the incidence of falls among older people and building safer road transport facilities to reduce the burden of mTBI.