Abstract
BACKGROUND: Livestock herds are interconnected with each other via an intricate network of transports of animals which represents a potential substrate for the spread of epidemic diseases. We analysed four years (2012-2015) of daily bovine transports to assess the risk of disease transmission and identify times and locations where monitoring would be most effective. Specifically, we investigated how the seasonal dynamics of transport networks, driven by the alpine summering and traditional cattle markets, affect the risk of epidemic outbreaks. RESULTS: We found strong and consistent seasonal variation in several structural network measures as well as in measures for outbreak risk. Analysis of the consequences of excluding markets, dealers and alpine pastures from the network shows that markets contribute much more to the overall outbreak risk than alpine summering. Static descriptors of monthly transport networks were poor predictors of outbreak risk emanating from individual holdings; a dynamic measure, which takes the temporal structure of the network into account, gave better risk estimates. A stochastic simulation suggests that targeted surveillance based on this dynamic network allows a higher detection rate and smaller outbreak size at detection than compared to other sampling schemes. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic measures based on time-stamped data-the outgoing contact chain-can give better risk estimates and could help to improve surveillance schemes. Using this measure we find evidence that even in a country with intense summering practice, markets continue being the prime risk factor for the spread of contagious diseases.