Abstract
AIM: This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of percutaneous thermal ablation combined with transarterial embolization for recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy and establish a prognostic nomogram to predict survival. METHODS: One hundred seventeen patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma receiving ablation from 2009 to 2014 were included in primary cohort to establish a prognostic nomogram. Between 2014 and 2016, 51 patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma treated by ablation were enrolled in the validation cohort to validate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. All patients underwent locoregional ablation. Overall survival was the primary end point, and progression-free survival was the second end point. The performance of the nomogram was assessed through concordance index and calibration curve and compared with 5 conventional hepatocellular carcinoma staging systems. RESULTS: The 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates of primary cohort were 88.4%, 70.7%, and 64.1%, respectively. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year progression-free survival rates of primary cohort were 44%, 14%, and 8.7%, respectively. The results of multivariate analysis showed that tumor size ( P = .0469; hazard ratio, 1.020; 95% confidence interval, 1.0004-1.040), preoperative extrahepatic disease ( P = .0675; hazard ratio, 2.604; 95% confidence interval, 0.933-7.264), and close to hepatic hilum <2 cm ( P = .0053; hazard ratio, 3.691; 95% confidence interval, 1.474-9.240) were predictive factors for overall survival. The study established a nomogram to predict survival (concordance index, 0.752; 95% confidence interval, 0.656-0.849). According to the predicted overall survival, patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma were divided into 3 risk classes ( P < .05): low-risk group (total score <55; predicted 5-year overall survival rate, 82.9%), intermediate-risk group (55 ≤ total score < 99; predicted 5-year overall survival rate, 52.8%), and high-risk group (hazard ratio, total score ≥99; predicted 5-year overall survival rate, not available). CONCLUSION: Percutaneous thermal ablation appears to be an effective procedure for the treatment of recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy. The proposed nomogram provides a mechanism to accurately predict survival and could stratify risk among patients with recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma treated by ablation therapy.