Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Longitudinal cohort analysis was performed to identify the association between changes in the gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT)/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio trajectory and the risk of developing diabetes mellitus. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study. We analyzed the latent trajectory classes of changes in the GGT/HDL-C ratio by applying a latent class mixture model with healthy individuals who underwent medical checkups from January 2017 to December 2021 as the study subjects. To analyze the effect of the GGT/HDL-C ratio trajectory classes on new-onset diabetes mellitus, we then applied a multivariate Cox proportional risk regression model. Statistical analysis was performed using the R-software with the LCMM package. RESULTS: The study cohort comprised 3410 participants. All participants were followed up for 5 years, and 95 developed diabetes (4-year incidence of 2.78%). By applying the latent class mixed model, we categorized participants into three trajectory groups: low-stability group (n = 2253), medium-increase group (n = 941), and high-increase group (n = 216). The Cox proportional risk regression model analysis showed that the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for the incidence of diabetes mellitus was 1.73 (1.04-2.87) in the medium-increase group and 3.96 (2.11-7.44) in the high-increase group. Moreover, we calculated the estimated model-based levels and linear slopes of the GGT/HDL-C ratios for each age group between 26 and 85 years at 10-year intervals, respectively. The results indicated the strongest correlation between the GGT/HDL-C ratio slope and diabetes in the 46-55 year age group, with an odds ratio of 1.51 (1.25-1.83). CONCLUSION: A large increase in the GGT/HDL-C ratio was highly associated with the risk of developing diabetes mellitus. This result suggests that vigilance for changes in the GGT/HDL-C ratio trajectory during community health screening can help identify potential patients with diabetes, enabling early intervention and treatment.