Abstract
PURPOSE: This study aimed to investigate the association between sex-specific baseline serum phosphate and the incidence of new-onset cardiometabolic disease in a cohort of Shanghai-based older Chinese individuals. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A community cohort of 5000 disease-free Chinese men and women was recruited in 2013 and followed until 2017 for the development of cardiometabolic disease. Participants underwent index and follow-up health screens at the Tongji Medical School affiliated Shanghai East Hospital, including blood biochemistry analysis, anthropometric measurements, interview on health-related behaviors, and clinical evaluation. RESULTS: Higher baseline serum phosphate (>1.25 mmol/L) was significantly associated with new-onset type-2 diabetes mellitus (HR 1.730, 95% CI 1.127-2.655) and metabolic syndrome (HR 0.640, 95% CI 1.085-2.155) in women. Baseline serum phosphate was associated with age, BMI, waist circumference, SBP, total calcium, bicarbonate, and total cholesterol in women. The estimated risk of developing diabetes mellitus in women with inorganic phosphate >1.25 mmol/L was 14.54%. Inorganic phosphate accounted for 9.2% of the variance explained in a total estimated 14.52% of variance attributed to BMI, total cholesterol, total calcium, waist circumference, and inorganic phosphate. CONCLUSION: Serum phosphate concentration showed sex-specific associations with diabetes and metabolic syndrome. Higher inorganic phosphate was associated with increased risk of developing diabetes mellitus in women. These findings may be important in the assessment of individualized metabolic risk.