Abstract
PURPOSE: Changes in transition from metabolically healthy overweight/obesity (MHO) to metabolically unhealthy overweight/obesity (MUO) are associated with the risk for cardiometabolic complications. This study aims to investigate the effects of short-term dynamic changes in body mass index (BMI) and metabolic status on the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and to identify biological predictors for the MHO-to-MUO transition. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 4604 subjects from the REACTION study were included for a 3-year follow-up. Subjects were categorized based on their BMI and metabolic syndrome status. Overweight/obesity was defined as BMI ≥ 24 kg/m(2). Metabolically healthy was defined as having two or fewer of the metabolic syndrome components proposed by the Chinese Diabetes Society. Thus, subjects were divided into four groups: metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW), MHO, metabolically unhealthy normal weight (MUNW), and MUO. RESULTS: Compared with MHNW, MHO was not predisposed to an increased risk for T2D (OR 1.08, 95% CI 0.64-1.83, P = 0.762). However, a 3-year transition probability of 20.6% was identified for subjects who shifted from MHO to MUO; this conversion increased the risk of T2D by 3-fold (OR 3.04, 95% CI 1.21-7.68, P = 0.018). The fatty liver index independently predicted the MHO-to-MUO transition with an OR 3.14 (95% CI 1.56-7.46, P = 0.002) when comparing the fourth quartile to the first quartile. CONCLUSION: This study reveals that metabolic changes affect the short-term susceptibility to T2D in the overweight/obese Chinese population, and the fatty liver index is an efficient clinical parameter for identifying those with a metabolic deterioration risk.