Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Metabolic Syndrome (MS) is a construct relating to a series of metabolic dysfunctions attributable to insulin resistance and obesity. Here, we estimate the incidence of MS according to their individual components using a Mexican open-population cohort. METHODS: We evaluated data of 6144 Mexicans amongst whom 3340 did not have MS either by IDF or ATP-III definitions using data from an open-population cohort. We estimated the incidence of MS and each of its traits after a median follow-up of 2.24 (IQR 2.05-2.58) years and evaluated risk factors for MS incidence and each of its traits. We also explored individuals without any MS trait to evaluate trait and MS incidence after follow-up. RESULTS: We observed a high incidence of MS-IDF (115.11 cases per 1000 person-years, 95% CI 107.76-122.47), followed by MS-ATP-III (75.77 cases per 1000 person-years, 95% CI). The MS traits with the highest incidence were low HDL-C and abdominal obesity, which was consistent for subjects without MS and those without any MS trait. When assessing predictors of MS incidence, obesity, insulin resistance, and increased apolipoprotein B levels predicted MS incidence. Weight loss >5% of body weight and physical activity were the main protective factors. Obesity was a main determinant for incident MS traits in our population, with weight loss being also a protective factor for most MS traits. CONCLUSION: We observed a high incidence of MS in apparently healthy Mexican adults. Low HDL-C and abdominal obesity were the most frequent incident MS traits, with obesity being the main determinant of its incidence.