Abstract
Rationale: Individuals who will develop chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) could be identified at an early age before clinical manifestations appear. Objectives: We investigated risk of clinical COPD 10 years later in young adults from the general population with and without early COPD with a focus on smoking exposure. Methods: We included 14,870 individuals aged 20-100 years from the Copenhagen General Population Study with spirometry 10 years apart. Early COPD was defined as baseline FEV(1)/FVC less than the lower limit of normal in individuals aged <50 years. Outcomes included clinical COPD at final examination 10 years later (chronic respiratory symptoms with FEV(1)/FVC <0.70 and FEV(1) <80% predicted) and acute exacerbation hospitalizations during follow-up. Measurements and Main Results: Among 5,497 individuals aged <50 years at baseline with FEV(1)/FVC ≥0.70, 104 (3%) developed clinical COPD 10 years later; 4% of smokers with ≥10 pack-years had early COPD; 3% of smokers with <10 pack-years had early COPD; and 2% of never-smokers had early COPD. Among smokers with ≥10 pack-years, 24% developed clinical COPD in those with early COPD versus 4% in those without early COPD. Corresponding numbers were 10% and 1% in smokers with <10 pack-years and 3% and <1% in never-smokers, respectively. Among individuals with early COPD, odds ratios for clinical COPD 10 years later were 7.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.10-14.7) in smokers with ≥10 pack-years and 8.56 (95% CI, 4.92-14.9) in all smokers, whereas hazard ratios for acute exacerbation hospitalizations were 4.16 (95% CI, 1.66-10.5) and 4.33 (95% CI, 1.89-9.93), respectively. Results were validated in the Copenhagen City Heart Study. Conclusions: Depending on amount of smoking exposure, <24% of young adults in the general population with early COPD develop clinical COPD 10 years later. A smoking exposure threshold for early COPD should be reconsidered, as younger individuals are less represented in those with high smoking exposure.