Abstract
RATIONALE: After lung transplantation, spirometric values are routinely followed to assess graft function. FEV1 is used to characterize chronic allograft dysfunction, whereas the course of FVC change has been less acknowledged and rarely used. OBJECTIVES: To better understand the temporal relationship and prognostic ability of FEV1 and FVC decline after lung transplantation. METHODS: Serial FEV1 and FVC values were studied among 205 bilateral lung transplant recipients. Different decline patterns were characterized and evaluated for prognostic value via restricted mean modeling of mortality and times to other pertinent events. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Baseline FEV1 was achieved earlier than baseline FVC (median, 296 vs. 378 d; P < 0.0001). Decline in FEV1 or FVC from their respective post-transplant baselines occurred in 85 patients (41%). Fifty-nine of 85 (69%) had an isolated FEV1 decline, with 80% later meeting the FVC decline criterion. This subsequent FVC decline was associated with worsening FEV1 and lower median survival. Twenty-five of 85 patients (29%) demonstrated concurrent FEV1 and FVC decline. Patients with concurrent decline had higher 1- and 5-year mortality rates (1-yr, 53% vs. 18%, P < 0.0001; 5-yr, 61% vs. 48%, P = 0.001). These patients were more likely to have rapid-onset of spirometry decline (P = 0.05) and lower FEV1% predicted (P = 0.04) at presentation. CONCLUSIONS: FVC decline from its post-transplant baseline provides valuable prognostic information. Concurrent FEV1 and FVC decline identifies patients with fulminant, rapid deterioration and is the strongest clinical predictor of poor survival. Subsequent FVC decline in patients with an initial isolated FEV1 decline identifies disease progression and portends poor prognosis.