Abstract
RATIONALE: Our previous cross-sectional study showed that serum adiponectin is inversely associated with asthma among women. However, it is not known if serum adiponectin predicts future development of asthma or if asthma affects subsequent serum adiponectin concentrations among women. OBJECTIVES: To determine longitudinal association between serum adiponectin and incident asthma among women. METHODS: We used data from examinations at Years 10, 15, and 20 of the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) cohort. In our primary analysis, the association of CARDIA Year 15 serum adiponectin concentration with Year 20 incident asthma was evaluated. In our secondary analysis, the converse direction, that is, the association of CARDIA Year 10 prevalent asthma with Year 15 serum adiponectin, was evaluated, using logistic regression techniques. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Our primary analysis included 1,450 women, mostly premenopausal. Multivariable analyses demonstrated that the lowest tertile of Year 15 serum adiponectin concentration (<7 mg/L) predicted significantly higher risk for incident asthma at Year 20 among women (odds ratio, 2.07; 95% confidence interval, 1.05, 4.10), and particularly among current smokers (interaction P = 0.051). Further, low serum adiponectin was more important than body mass index in predicting the risk for incident asthma among women. We also showed that the converse relationship was not true; that is, Year 10 prevalent asthma did not predict Year 15 serum adiponectin concentrations in women. CONCLUSIONS: Serum adiponectin affects future risk for asthma in women and not vice versa. Measures that raise systemic adiponectin concentrations may lead to newer ways to prevent asthma among women, particularly among those who smoke.