Abstract
Bipolar disorder (BD) is characterized by temporal instability of mood and energy, but the neural correlates of this instability are poorly understood. In previous cross-sectional studies, mood state in BD has been associated with differential functional connectivity (FC) amongst several subcortical regions and ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Here, we assess whether BD is associated with longitudinal instability within this mood-related network of interest (NOI). Young people with BD-I/II were scanned 4-6 times and healthy controls (HC) were scanned 4 times over 9 months. Following preprocessing of 20-min resting-state scans, we assessed across-scan correlation of FC, focusing on FC between regions previously associated with BD mood state. Utilizing Bayesian models, we assessed the relationship between diagnostic group and within-person, across-scan correlation, adjusting for motion, time-of-day, and inter-scan interval; prediction intervals (PI) are reported. In a sample of 16 youth (11 BD, 5 HC; 16.3-23.3 years old) with 70 scans (50 BD, 20 HC), across-scan NOI stability was higher within- than between-person (0.70 vs. 0.54; p < 0.0001). BD (vs. HC) within-person scan-pairs showed lower NOI stability (mean -0.109; 95% PI -0.181, -0.038), distinguishing BD vs. HC with excellent accuracy (AUC = 0.95). NOI instability was more pronounced with manic symptoms (mean -0.012; 95% PI -0.023, -0.0002) and in BD-II (vs. BD-I; mean -0.071; 90% PI -0.136, -0.007). Results persisted after accounting for medications, comorbidity, and sleep/arousal measures. Within this pilot sample, BD is characterized by less within-person stability of a mood-related NOI. While preliminary, these results highlight a possible role for precision imaging approaches to elucidate neural mechanisms underlying BD.