Abstract
Three-quarters of lifetime mental illness occurs by the age of 24, but relatively little is known about how to robustly identify youth at risk to target intervention efforts known to improve outcomes. Barriers to knowledge have included obtaining robust predictions while simultaneously analyzing large numbers of different types of candidate predictors. In a new, large, transdiagnostic youth sample and multidomain high-dimension data, we used 160 candidate predictors encompassing neural, prenatal, developmental, physiologic, sociocultural, environmental, emotional and cognitive features and leveraged three different machine learning algorithms optimized with a novel artificial intelligence meta-learning technique to predict individual cases of anxiety, depression, attention deficit, disruptive behaviors and post-traumatic stress. Our models tested well in unseen, held-out data (AUC ≥ 0.94). By utilizing a large-scale design and advanced computational approaches, we were able to compare the relative predictive ability of neural versus psychosocial features in a principled manner and found that psychosocial features consistently outperformed neural metrics in their relative ability to deliver robust predictions of individual cases. We found that deep learning with artificial neural networks and tree-based learning with XGBoost outperformed logistic regression with ElasticNet, supporting the conceptualization of mental illnesses as multifactorial disease processes with non-linear relationships among predictors that can be robustly modeled with computational psychiatry techniques. To our knowledge, this is the first study to test the relative predictive ability of these gold-standard algorithms from different classes across multiple mental health conditions in youth within the same study design in multidomain data utilizing >100 candidate predictors. Further research is suggested to explore these findings in longitudinal data and validate results in an external dataset.