Abstract
Although the mesopelagic zone occupies a substantial volume of the world's oceans, our results suggest that the livable portion may compress vertically by ~ 40 m or ~ 39% by the end of the century. Using an ensemble of three downscaled climate projections from a high emissions scenario, we evaluated the connection between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and changes in light and oxygen at depth, which influence the upper and lower limits of mesopelagic habitat in the central California Current. Although the model projects a small deepening (~ 2 m) of the upper light boundary consistent with increased stratification and reduced upper ocean productivity, the main driver of vertical mesopelagic habitat compression is the significant shoaling (by ~ 44 m) of the hypoxic boundary over the course of the 21st century. Differences in dissolved oxygen across ensemble members highlight the potential influence of equatorial dynamics and the California Undercurrent in constraining the future availability of mesopelagic habitat along the U.S. west coast. Mesopelagic ecosystems connect the surface ocean to the deep sea, and a projected decrease in the vertical extent of mesopelagic habitat could have cascading effects on a broader range of marine ecosystem processes and carbon export.