Abstract
BACKGROUND: Bovine ephemeral fever (BEF) is a febrile disease of cattle that is transmitted by arthropod vectors such as mosquitoes and Culicoides biting midges. An outbreak of BEF recently occurred in Ishigaki Island and surrounding islands that are located southwest of Japan. In this study, an epidemiological analysis was conducted to understand the temporal and spatial characteristics of the outbreak. Factors associated with the disease spread within Ishigaki Island were investigated by hierarchical Bayesian models. The possibility of between-island transmission by windborne vectors and transmission by long-distance migration of infected vectors were examined using atmospheric dispersion models. RESULTS: In September 2012, the first case of the disease was detected in the western part of Ishigaki Island. In 1 month, it had rapidly spread to the southern part of the island and to surrounding islands, and led to 225 suspected cases of BEF during the outbreak. The dispersion model demonstrated the high possibility of between-island transmission by wind. Spatial analysis showed that paddy fields, farmlands, and slope gradients had a significant impact on the 1-km cell-level incidence risk. These factors may have influenced the habitats and movements of the vectors with regard to the spread of BEF. A plausible incursion event of infected vectors from Southeast Asia to Ishigaki Island was estimated to have occurred at the end of August. CONCLUSION: This study revealed that the condition of a terrain and land use significantly influenced disease transmission. These factors are important in assessing favorable environments for related vectors. The results of the dispersion model indicated the likely transmission of the infected vectors by wind on the local scale and on the long-distance scale. These findings would be helpful for developing a surveillance program and developing preventive measures against BEF.